Though most sports bettors have heard of anticipated value, few know what it really means. Even fewer people use the idea while placing wagers.
Here’s all you need to know about the anticipated value and why it’s possibly the most crucial element in determining your return on investment from sports betting:
What Expected Value Is There In Sports Betting?
The simplest definition of anticipated value in sports betting is a method of calculating the difference in likelihood between a bettor’s expectations and those of the sportsbook.
Betting lines, which are assigned by oddsmakers to all moneylines, point spreads, totals, and other bet types, are visible to bettors as their probability estimates. American odds are those that provide positive numbers (like +100, +222, etc.) to the underdog and negative numbers (like -120, -155, etc.) to the favorite. Nearly all legal U.S. sportsbooks only utilize these odds.
According to this system, the line number rises when the possibility of winning is low and falls when the likelihood of winning is high.
Thus, a +100 underdog has a higher chance of winning than a +240 underdog (according to the book). In contrast, a -190 favorite has a higher chance of winning than a -120 favorite.
Bettors can translate these line numbers into an implied probability.
If a book, for instance, gives the Seahawks a +100 line versus the Patriots, that corresponds to a 50% chance of winning or a coin flip.
A bettor would assign a positive expected value (+EV) if they think the Seahawks genuinely have a better than 50% chance of winning this game. The bettor would assign a negative expected value if they thought the team had a chance of winning that was lower than 50%. (-EV).
Why Does Expected Value Matter to Sports Bettors?
Sharp gamblers have a distinct advantage over most other gamblers and one of the few advantages they may take against a sportsbook by weighing bets according to the predicted value.
In an effort to predict the victors of the day, novice sports bettors frequently rush through the board at the last minute or check NFL odds on Sunday morning. In order to determine whether a wager is overvalued or undervalued, those seeking expected value, or +EV, take into account the lines (and, by extension, probability) oddsmakers assign to each game, frequently as early as possible.
Finding value early in the week is a habit among the top NFL bettors. By Thursday, bookmakers have changed their odds, thus value bets are only accessible for a limited period of time before the market catches up in an efficient market like the NFL.
An optimistic predicted value Sports betting has a fundamental method called betting, but “the public” or casual bettors rarely use it.
Even though most sports bettors exaggerate their betting knowledge, it is nearly impossible to consistently win by just trying to pick wins. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas have spent decades analyzing many sporting events, as have sportsbooks in more than a dozen other states.
To locate the most effective lines, they make use of the greatest oddsmakers, software, and algorithms. Even the most successful bettors “only” win about 55%–56% of their wagers.
Several sportsbooks, whether they are located in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado, or Pennsylvania, provide their patrons with bonuses for wagering, free beverages, and other amenities since they will eventually recoup their investment.
Price of the Vig
The vigorish sometimes referred to as the “vig,” is a fee that practically every retail and online sportsbook levies on the betting line. The actual percentage is 4.54%. For instance, instead of both teams’ odds being +100, they would be -110 (52.38% implied probability) if a bookmaker gave both teams a 50% chance of winning. This implies that wagerers pay what amounts to an additional 5% fee on each wager, win or lose. To even break even, a bettor must win 52.38% of their bets.
All things considered, sports betting offers players some of the finest winning odds of any legal gambling type because historically, sportsbooks make between 5% and 8% of the total amount spent. A savvy bet can, at the least, keep a sports bettor afloat so they can play recreationally. Long-term, very few sports bettors make considerable money. A bettor must use critical thinking to do this. Expected value betting cannot ensure long-term success, but betting without taking EV into account can.
What a Bet with Positive Expected Value Looks Like
A +EV bettor is like a savvy grocer, to use another comparison. The savvy consumer recognizes when an item’s prices have increased since their last visit and selects a replacement accordingly. In fact, the same customer purchases a cheaper item they might not have otherwise.
It operates similarly for sports betting. In order to locate the widest gaps between what they believe will happen and what the book, through its betting lines, says will happen, +EV bettors search across the online sports betting market rather than betting on a team that will almost certainly win but demands a high premium to bet on.
How do I figure out my expected value?
Sportsbooks would go out of business if all bettors only placed bets with positive expected values.
However, there is no foolproof way for gamblers to determine exactly which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors have developed at least a semi-reliable feel for the market and recognize, more often than not, when it’s time to “buy low,” allowing them to beat the closing line. Others keep a watch on injury news.
As was previously noted, books establish their lines based on years of experience as well as significant financial and human resources. A sportsbook operator uses these enormous financial and intellectual resources to construct a line that the typical bettor would find impossible to accurately replicate. Most sports bettors just make an informed guess based on what they are aware of and have witnessed over the course of a season.
That doesn’t imply that looking for +EV is pointless. There is no silver bullet to defeat the sportsbook, but punters can (and should) balance their betting selections against their given odds by taking into account all available data, including prior performance, recent performance, injuries, weather, trends, and more.
EVS in Betting FAQs
1) In horse racing, what does EVS mean?
You may occasionally see EVS or Evens shown. This is the same as a fraction of one-to-one. Once more, it indicates that the horse in issue is favored to prevail. EVS: If you win, you will receive 1 unit for each unit you bet (plus your stake).
2) Can betting with positive EV work?
For individuals who can control risk and accept the variation, positive anticipated value betting, often known as value betting, is appropriate. Although a +EV sports bettor must be prepared for downturns, long-term success is mathematically certain because all of their wagers have a positive expected value.
3) What is a negative EV bet?
The measure of what a bettor can anticipate to win or lose each wager made on the same odds repeatedly is called anticipated value (EV) in the betting world. A positive anticipated value (+EV) suggests a future profit, whereas a negative value (-EV) suggests a future loss.
4) How do you locate sports wagers with a positive EV?
Finding what the sharp line should be on a game is one of the simplest ways to find positive EV bets.
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