How Afghanistan’s loss benefits other contender teams

Australia’s thrilling victory against Afghanistan has secured they will play South Africa in the semifinals. India was the first team to confirm their place in the semifinals; they are currently awaiting their opponent.

The following are the future goals that each team must achieve: 

Points table (as of Nov 7)

India (Q) 8 8 0 16 2.456
South Africa (Q) 8 6 2 12 1.376
Australia (Q) 8 6 2 12 0.861
New Zealand 8 4 4 8 0.398
Pakistan 8 4 4 8 0.036
Afghanistan 8 4 4 8 -0.338
Bangladesh (E) 8 2 6 4 -1.142
Sri Lanka (E) 8 2 6 4 -1.16
Netherlands 7 2 5 4 -1.398
England (E) 7 1 6 2 -1.504


Last of the fixtures

Netherlands vs. England, Nov. 8, Pune

Sri Lanka vs. New Zealand, Nov. 9, Bengaluru

Afghanistan vs. South Africa, Ahmedabad, November 10

Australia versus Bangladesh, November 11, Pune

Pakistan versus. England, Nov. 11, Kolkata

India vs. Netherlands, November 12, Bengaluru

How did the loss to Afghanistan benefit currently-ranked teams?

Following Afghanistan’s devastating loss to Australia, Pakistan, and New Zealand are essentially still in control of their destiny. The only thing that separates the three teams—winning four and losing four—is their NRR. If any of the three teams wins its last group match, the victor advances to the semifinals, while the losers are eliminated.

The NRR will determine who advances if Afghanistan, New Zealand, Pakistan, or all three lose by at least two votes. With an NRR of +0.398, New Zealand is positioned best out of the three. To surpass New Zealand’s net run rate (NRR), Pakistan would have to defeat England by more than 130 runs and Afghanistan by more than 273 runs if New Zealand defeated Sri Lanka by one run (assuming the sides bat first and score 300 in all the games). Afghanistan has to defeat Pakistan by 136+ runs and New Zealand by 266+ runs to surpass both teams on net run rate (NRR) if they lose by a single run (assuming all three teams chase 300).

Afghanistan would need to win by more than 140 runs if Pakistan defeated England by only one run (after achieving 300 batting first) and New Zealand lost their most recent match. Pakistan will have the advantage of knowing the exact equation because they play their last league game after both New Zealand and Afghanistan have finished theirs.

With two games remaining, where does all of this leave the Netherlands?

The Netherlands are the unintended winners of Australia’s triumph at the Wankhede since the result, at least mathematically, keeps them alive. Regardless of their outcomes against England and India, the Netherlands are eliminated if either Afghanistan, New Zealand, or Pakistan wins their last league game. The Netherlands can only advance if they defeat England and India and hope that Afghanistan, New Zealand, and Pakistan all finish with eight points apiece. That being said, the Netherlands would require a significant victory merely to propel their NRR into positive territory.

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